Modeling as Risk Assessment Refinement

Modelling enables a more realistic assessment of effects than the conventional risk assessment based on toxicity exposure ratios (TER) does. For example, it offers the possibility to assess various exposure scenarios (e.g. pulsed exposure) or different environmental conditions. Particularly helpful is modelling in cases where experiments are technically unfeasible. Therefore modelling is a valuable tool to improve and refine your conventionally derived risk assessment data. 

Other questions that can be answered with modelling are:

• Which life stage or developmental phase of an organism is most susceptible to exposure?
• Can recovery be expected after an initial effect and how much time will an organism need for recovery?
• Can the time-weighted average (TWA) assumption safely be applied?
• May long-term effects occur?

Models can be based on acute and chronic toxicity data, accumulation studies, data on substance properties, FOCUS and other data for environmental concentrations. These data are usually available as results of conventional risk assessments. A sufficient data quality is fundamental for a good modeling result.

The European Food and Safety Authority published in 2014 a scientific opinion on Good Modelling Practise (GMP). We follow these principles for our own standards and to achieve full acceptance by regulatory bodies.

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